Sea-Intelligence Says Global Excess Demand Nearly Disappears

Danish maritime data company Sea-Intelligence has analysed what the removal of capacity from the market (due to vessel delays) means for the efficient development of the global fleet and its impact on the global supply and demand balance. As a starting point, the company modeled the basic structural development of the fleet, taking into account the unavailability of the global fleet due to ship delays.

"While the nominal fleet is growing at a steady rate of about 4% per year in 2020-2022, there is a considerable difference between the two as delays start to get serious and the available fleet plummets," said Alan Moore. Fei pointed out. As a better basis for comparing global demand with global fleet size, Sea-Intelligence uses TEU*Miles.

"The surge in demand in February 2021 and 2022 is purely a Chinese New Year effect and does not imply any potential changes," Murphy noted. Understandably, the extreme strength in favor of airlines in 2021 is due to cumulative demand growth that continues to outpace the available fleet. The impact started in July 2020 and has only started to taper off in recent months.

In fact, from November 2020 to January 2022, demand has been 10% higher than capacity. However, according to the Sea-Intelligence report, the gap is narrowing and is now down to 2% from pre-pandemic levels.

“All in all, the data shows that the extreme surge in freight rates in 2021 is indeed driven by a sudden surge in global demand over capacity, mainly due to the unavailability of capacity,” Murphy went on to conclude: “The recent normalization trend is also largely driven by Driven by gradual improvements in schedule reliability and vessel delays, as long as the improvement continues, we should expect the supply-demand balance to continue to decline as well, with increasing downward pressure on freight rates.”

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